India’s Demand for Crude Oil: Projections Till 2035
Deepti Sethi
Ph.D. Research Scholar, Economics Department, Arni University, Himachal Pradesh, India.
Brijesh Tiwari
Dean and Head of Department, Arni University, Himachal Pradesh, India.
India’s demand for crude oil is projected to rise substantially by 2035, driven by rapid economic growth, accelerated industrialization, increasing urbanization, and heightened energy requirements—especially within the transport and power sectors (IEA, 2021; MoPNG, 2022). Statistical analyses reveal a strong positive correlation (r = 0.92) between crude oil demand and real income levels, indicating that rising income significantly influences energy consumption patterns (Planning Commission, 2023). Over the period from 2013–14 to 2034–35, the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of oil demand is estimated to be approximately 9.68 %, highlighting a sustained upward trajectory (TERI, 2023). Despite this projected growth, India faces critical challenges due to its heavy reliance on oil imports, which currently account for over 85 % of its crude oil consumption (MoPNG, 2022). This dependency exposes the country to risks associated with global price volatility and geopolitical supply disruptions, raising significant energy security concerns (BP Energy Outlook, 2023). To mitigate these risks and ensure long-term energy sustainability, the study recommends diversifying energy sources, investing in energy efficiency, and accelerating the deployment of renewable energy technologies such as solar and wind (NITI Aayog, 2022; IEA, 2021).
Keywords: India Energy Consumption, Crude Oil, Energy Efficiency, Demand Projections, Fossil Fuel Usage.
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